Rational Thinking Module Map

Purpose  To teach students the statistical principles of likelihood estimation and elementary probability theory.

Summary  The module explains the statistical concepts of (1) probability as defined by games of chance, (2) probability as defined by past outcomes, (3) base rate, and (4) conditioned probability. The module uses examples from various real-life settings, including epidemiology. In a series of exercises, students practice estimating the likelihood of an outcome using two techniques: multiplying probabilities and converting probabilities to frequencies.

Introduction
Probability: Games of chance
Probability: Past outcomes
Common vs. rare outcomes
Base rate
A special case: Disease rates
Conditional probability
Training with probabilities
 		Learning to estimate likelihoods
Likelihood estimation training
Estimation problem
Summary
Test your understanding
References


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