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Training with probabilitiesUnderstanding conditional probability can help you estimate the likelihood of various outcomes in real life.If you wanted to improve your skills at likelihood estimation, how could you do it? Richard Nisbett and his colleagues have demonstrated that training students in the use of statistical principles and conditional probabilities improves their performance on a variety of reasoning tasks. Usually the students in these experiments received a fairly extensive training program, but we'll try to simulate a simplified version of this type of training on the next pages. |