Summary

Here are the main points we've covered:

1. One type of rational thinking, called likelihood estimation, requires people to compare the probabilities of several outcomes. In real life, people often have to use this type of reasoning to guide their decisions.

2. If the possible outcomes are determined by factors other than chance alone, the best estimate of the likelihood of any one outcome is the number of times that particular outcome has occurred in the past, divided by the total number of past outcomes. This is called the base rate of the outcome.