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Common vs. rare outcomesIn most real-life circumstances there are a limited number of reasonable (common or likely) outcomes as well as a larger (perhaps infinite) number of unlikely but possible outcomes.For example, if a candidate is elected president of the United States, it would be reasonable to expect him or her to serve the full four-year term. Although it is also possible that the person would resign, be impeached, be assassinated, or die of natural causes, these outcomes are rare. The best estimate of the probability of each outcome is not 1/5, but rather the proportion of previous U.S. presidents who experienced that outcome (the relative frequency of that outcome). |