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Base rateThis estimate is called the base rate of an outcome, and is calculated by dividing the number of occurrences of each outcome by the total number of persons or events in our sample. As of 1995, 42 different persons have held the office of U.S. president, but there have been 52 presidential elections. Of those 52 elected individuals, 43 served their full term, 4 died of natural causes during their term, 4 were assassinated, and 1 resigned. Thus the observed base rate for each outcome: | |
| Served full term | -- 43 / 52 = 0.827, or 83% |
| Died of natural causes | -- 4 / 52 = 0.077, or 8% |
| Assassinated | -- 4 / 52 = 0.077, or 8% |
| Resigned | -- 1 / 52 = 0.019, or 2% |
| Removed from office | -- 0 / 52 = 0.000, or 0% |